In the 2009 Arctic Fisheries Management Plan (FMP) by the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC), Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis) and snow crab (Chionocetes opilio) were identified as the three potential target species in the Arctic Management Area (AMA). For the FMP and the 2017 Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) update, qualitative assessments of these species based on presence-absence survey data were done for late juvenile and mature life stages. To quantitatively assess EFH, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models to link habitat characteristics to species occurrence data from surveys for larval, juvenile and mature life stages. Further, we use the best-fit models for each species and life stage, to predict the distribution of suitable habitat in warm and cold years. Within this study, we present species distribution models that identify key habitat characteristics and the probability of suitable habitat for these species in the AMA (US Chukchi and Beaufort Seas). Shifts in the predicted probability of suitable habitat during warm and cold conditions varied by species and life stage. These predicted differences in response to changing temperatures may provide insight into future shifts in distribution with climate change.

USD: $125,000

2019-09-26 → 2021-06-28