Oil Spill Modeling Program - Additional References

Additional References Pertaining to Oil-Spill Occurrence Rates

American Bureau of Shipping Consulting Inc. 2016. 2016 Update of Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills. Report to the Oil Spill Preparedness Division of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Sterling, VA, 95 pp.

Anderson, C.M. Mayes, M., and LaBelle, R.P. (2012) Update of Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management OCS Report 2012-069. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Herndon, VA

Anderson, C.M. & LaBelle, R.P. (2000) Update of Comparative Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills. Spill Science & Technology Bulletin, Vol. 6, No. 5/6, 303-321

Anderson, C.M. & LaBelle, R.P. (1994) Comparative Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills. Spill Science & Technology Bulletin, Vol.1 No. 2, 131-141

Anderson, C.M. & LaBelle, R.P. (1990) Estimated Occurrence Rates for Analysis of Accidental Oil Spills on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Oil & Chem. Pollut. 6, 21 35

Anderson, C.M. & LaBelle, R.P. (1985) The Application of Oceanography to Oil-Spill Modeling for the Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. MTS Journal, Vol. 19, No. 2. 

Devanney, J.W., III, & Stewart, R.J. (1974) Analysis of Oil Spill Statistics: Report to Council on Environmental Quality. Washington, DC.

Lanfear, K.J. & Amstutz, D.E. (1983) A Reexamination of Occurrence Rates for Accidental Oil Spills on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. 1983 Oil Spill Conference, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC.

Nakassis, Anastase (1982) Has Offshore Oil Production Become Safer? USGS Open-File Report 82-232

Smith, R.A., Slack, J.R., Wyant, T. & Lanfear, K. J. (1982) The Oil Spill Risk Analysis Model of the U.S. Geological Survey. USGS Professional Paper 1227, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. 

  • Title-Page 7: Title, Contents, Abstract, Introduction, Representations of Physical Data
  • Pages 8-17: Winds, Currents, Oil Spill Trajectory Simulation, Risk Calculation
  • Pages 18-24: Spill Occurrence including Poisson as Predicted Probability Distribution 
  • Pages 25-36: Probability of Occurrence and Contact, Model Verification & Limitations, Model Output and Case Examples, References
  • Appendix: Appendix–Distribution Theory of Spill Incidence including:
    • The derivation of the predicted probability distribution
    • Moment-generating functions
    • Convergence of the negative binomial to the Poisson
    • Distribution of total number of spills from multiple sources
    • Distribution of the number of hits

Stewart, R.J. (1975) Oil Spillage Associated with the Development of Offshore Petroleum Resources. Report to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Martingale, Inc., Cambridge, MA.

  • Title-Page 23: Title, Introduction, Survey of Platform & Pipeline Spills, Regression Analysis (Hypothesis 1)
  • Pages 24-49: Regression Analysis (Hypothesis 2), Incidence of Oil Spillage in Hypothetical Developments, Spill Volume Distribution, Conclusion and Bibliography

Stewart, R.J. (1976) A Survey and Critical Review of U.S. Oil Spill Data Resources with Application to the Tanker/Pipeline Controversy. Report to Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC. Martingale, Inc., Cambridge, MA.

  • Title-Page 19: Title, Introduction, Average Volume Comparison Techniques 
  • Pages 20-43: Summary and Critiques of Data Resources
  • Pages 44-61: Spillage of Oil by Tankers and Barges in U.S. Harbors
  • Pages 62-74: General Statistical Summary, Bibliography

Stewart, R.J., and Kennedy, M.B. (1978) An Analysis of U.S. Tanker and Offshore Petroleum Production Oil Spillage through 1975: Report to Office of Policy Analysis. U.S. Department of the Interior, Contract Number 14-02-0001-2193.

  • Title-Page 16: Title, Executive Summary, Table of Contents, Background, Data Sources 
  • Pages 17-35: Editing and Correcting PIRS Tanker Data, U.S. Tanker Spill Incidence Model 
  • Pages 36-51: U.S. Tanker Spill Volume Model, Intentional Discharge
  • Pages 52-65: U.S. and Foreign Tankers
  • Pages 66-91: Offshore Platform Spill Incidence Model, Volume Distributions for Production Platform Spills
  • Pages 92-107: Pipeline Spills, Use of Models, Data Collection Recommendations
  • Pages 108-115: Summary and Conclusions, References
  • Appendix A: Data Processing Overview
  • Appendices B-D: Offsets of Posterior CDF’s, Summary of the Status of the Bayesian Hypothesis Technique, Preliminary Extreme Value Analysis of Platform & Pipeline Spills (1964-1975)